UFC 264 will define Conor McGregor’s future. There once was a time where McGregor was untouchable. His ferocious left hand led him to becoming the two-division champion and thrusted him into superstardom. His brash mouth and charisma turned him into a fan favorite and elevated his status of fame even higher. With a mouth like his, and the skills to back it up, he was as elite of a fighter as one could get. He was must see TV. However, that was years ago, and a loss this weekend on July 10th could bring it all crashing down.
McGregor will be completing the trilogy against number one lightweight contender Dustin Poirier Saturday after coming off a knockout loss in their second bout in January. The former champion had defeated Poirier early on in his career in pursuit of his featherweight belt.
However in their second bout, fans did not see the usual trash talking version of McGregor, instead fans saw a humble version of McGregor. There was no brashness, nor was there Twitter war or big media stunts like fans have seen in the past. The lack of overzealous confidence was very out of character. He was a different man and many speculated this to be because he knew that there was a very real possibility he could be beaten.
Before his second fight, the last time he stepped inside the octagon against a lightweight was against Khabib Nurmagomedov. McGregor was his usual self. He boasted and bragged and had an incident where he had thrown a dolly at Nurmagomedov’s bus. He eventually went on to pay for it when the cage closed. McGregor was beaten in every aspect of that fight. He was smothered by Nurmagomedov and taunted while punches were laid onto him. It was a different kind of defeat. After McGregor had lost to Nate Diaz in their first bout fans were confident he would come back stronger, but after this fight fans saw McGregor sitting against the cage after the fight, gasping for air, and shaken. He left the octagon that night and did not fight for two years.
Activity matters when it comes to fighting. Before he stepped into the ring with Poirier the second time, McGregor had only had two fights since 2018 one of which was a win over an aged Donald Cerrone, and the other being against Nurmagomedov. Poirier on the other hand, had five fights against the top contenders in the lightweight division.
McGregor’s inactivity showed in the fight. Throughout the fight Poirier had smashed McGregor’s legs with calf kicks, a kick that had risen to popularity among fighters during McGregor’s absence. He had no response to this as his stance did not allow for many options to defend against it. For this fight his stance relied on putting lots of weight on his front leg which limited his mobility to defend against counter leg kicks. This eventually led to him losing his base which contributed to his knockout loss.
His record at lightweight fell to 1-2. Another loss would surely drop him out of contention for regaining the lightweight title.
A fighter’s decline is typically a fast one. Anthony “Showtime” Pettis, for example, went through a similar rise to popularity that McGregor did. His famous jump roundhouse kick off the cage made him a viral sensation. He had a flashy fighting style and carried himself with the confidence and swagger that led to him winning the lightweight title. However, his next fight against Rafael Dos Anjos did not go well for Pettis. He took a beating from Dos Anjos in a fight similar to McGregor’s against Nurmagomedov. Pettis was not the same fighter that led him to a title after that fight. His losses began to pile up as the flash and swagger that made him a star began to fade, and he was never able to regain the lightweight title. Instead, he filled the role of fan favorite, fighting on the undercard of a bigger fight, until he and the UFC parted ways in 2020.
While it might be quick to decide that McGregor is in his decline now, a second loss to Poirier could surely be the start of it.
Yet McGregor has a history of coming back strong after losses. After his loss to Diaz in their first fight, he came back with an adapted game plan and won a decision in their second. After his loss to Nurmagomedov, he came back and finished Donald Ceronne within the first round. There is still a possibility McGregor could regain magic from the past and put on a show. He looks to be in great shape for the trilogy fight, and has even gotten back to his trash talking antics on Twitter.
There is no telling what UFC fans will see out of McGregor July 10th, but the outcome of it can make or break the rest of his career in fighting. Regardless of the outcome it is still must-see TV.
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